Document Type : ORIGINAL RESEARCH ARTICLE
Author
3799 unit 1 selosesha
Abstract
A dry spell is defined as the consecutive number of days with precipitation less than a specified threshold value of a standardised precipitation index (SPI). A cumulative effect of these dry spells amount to drought events and thereby negatively affect socio-economic activities in the communities. The current study aimed at determining the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) aided by Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) in order to make easy prediction given clear SOI cyclicity of anything from 3 to 7 years. The study used SPI to define dry spells and was also used a conceptual framework to quantify dry spells. A spectral analysis was also applied to SPI-1 time series datasets to determine return levels to provide government and all relevant authorities with behavioural characteristics of dry spells in the area for proactive mitigation strategies. Main results of this study ENSO having no direct influence over all the selected station’s precipitation. All the stations showed an average of 12 months or 1 year return level. This implies that after every 1 year, the study area is highly likely to experience dry spells which could lead to detrimental effects of the most important amenities of the study area. This phenomenon provides authorities with relevant information to plan proactively as dry spells may amount or graduate to drought events and thereby adversely affect water consuming activities in the area.
Keywords
OPEN ACCESS
©2024 The author(s). This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
PUBLISHER NOTE
Forscher Publisher remains neutral concerning jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
CURRENT PUBLISHER
Forscher Publisher
)
Letters to Editor
[1] Letters that include statements of statistics, facts, research, or theories should include appropriate references, although more than three are discouraged.
[2] Letters that are personal attacks on an author rather than thoughtful criticism of the author’s ideas will not be considered for publication.
[3] Letters can be no more than 300 words in length.
[4] Letter writers should include a statement at the beginning of the letter stating that it is being submitted either for publication or not.
[5] Anonymous letters will not be considered.
[6] Letter writers must include their city and state of residence or work.
[7] Letters will be edited for clarity and length.