Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Science, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria



Change in rainfall is one of the most critical factors in determining the impact of climate change on Abia state. Annual rainfall data was acquired from HadCM3 baseline and future scenarios between 1972 and 2050 for Abia state. Analysis was performed using Geographical Information System (GIS) and statistical techniques. Descriptive statistics were extracted using statistical methods while for spatial rainfall distribution, standard deviation and coefficient of variation were mapped using GIS interpolation methods. For baseline scenario between 1972 and 2015, annual rainfall minimum, maximum, mean, variability, standard deviation and coefficient of variation in the southern part of Abia state is relatively higher than the northern part of the state which is lower compared to future scenario between 2015 and 2050. Significant changes in rainfall between 2015 to 2050 in-relation to its distribution pattern (using Log Pearson Type III probability distribution) in-terms of its frequency, climate extremes and extreme events is higher than 1972 to 2015. This change in rainfall implies that in Abia state an increase in heavy rainfall with a 0.2% chance exceedance annual rainfall event is likely to become 0.5% chance exceedance event in many regions with a higher emissions scenarios leading to a greater projected decrease in return period. Finally, water requirement for various crops were studied in-relation to effective rainfall and the results reveals that crops receive a high probability of critical rainfall amount in a given year needed for growth between 1972 and 2050. This study provides information on rainfall trend on a long-term basis and impact of climate change on Abia state which will be very useful for water resource management, agriculture and economic development of the region.


Adejuwon, J.O. (2004, March 24-27). Assessing the impacts of
climate variability on crop yield: The example of the Sudano-Sahelian ecological zone in Nigeria [Paper presentation].  2nd AIACC Regional Workshop for Africa & Indian Ocean Islands, Dakar, Senegal.
Arvind, G., Kumar, P.A., Karthi, S.G.,  & Suribabu, C.R. (2017).
Statistical analysis of 30 years rainfall data: A case study. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 80 (012067). doi:10.1088/1755-1315/80/1/012067
Akinseye, F.M., Ajayi, V.O., & Oladitan, T.O.(2013). Assessing the
impacts of climate variability on crop yield over Sudano- Sahelian zone in Nigeria. Access International Journal of Agricultural Science, 1(7), 91-98.
Ayode, J.O. (1983). Introduction to Climatology for the Tropics.
Spectrum Books; John Wiley & Sons.
Dan’azumi, S., Shamsudin, S., & Rahman, A.A.  (2010). Probability
distribution of rainfall depth at hourly time-scale. International Journal of Environmental and Ecological Engineering, 4(12), 670-674.
Davie, T. (2008). Fundamentals of Hydrology (2nd ed.).Routledge.
Fisher, R.A. (1924). The influence of the rainfall on the yield of
wheat at Rothamsted.  Philosophical transaction of   the Royal Society B, 213(402-410),89-142.
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). (2001). Climate
variability and change: A challenge for sustainable agricultural production. FAO - Committee on Agriculture.
Gupta, S.K., Babu, R.,  & Tejwani, K.G.  (1975). Weekly rainfall of
India for planning cropping programme. Soil Conservation Digest, 3(1), 31-36.
Hauser, S., Wairegi, L., Asadu, C.L.A., Asawalam, D.O., Jokthan, G.,
& Ugbe, U. (2014). Cassava system cropping guide. Africa Soil Health Consortium.
Ignaciuk, A., & Mason-D’Croz, D. (2014). Modelling adaptation to
climate change in agriculture (OECD  Food, Agriculture and Fisheries paper No. 70). OECD Publishing.
Iheoma, C.G. (2014). Impact of climate change on agricultural
production and sustainability in Nigeria. Asian Journal of Agricultural Extension, Economics & Sociology, 4(1), 29-41. doi:10.9734/AJAEES/2015/11518
Jackson, I.J. (1989). Climate, water and agriculture in the tropics
(2nd ed.). Longman Scientific & Technical; Wiley.
Knoth, J.(1993). Traditional storage of yams and cassava and its
improvement. GTZ-Postharvest Project.
Sharma, M.A., & Singh, J.B.  (2010). Use of probability distribution
in rainfall analysis. New York Science Journal, 3(9), 40-49.
Obasi, G.O.P. (2003, March 31). World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) Statement No. 238. International Symposium on Climate Change (ISCC), Beijing, China.
Ochieng, J., Kirimi, L., & Mathenge, M. (2016). Effects of climate
variability and change on agricultural production: The case of Small scale farmers in Kenya. NJAS:Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences, 77, 71–78. doI: 10.1016/j.njas.2016.03.005
Pankhurst, R., & Johnson, D.H.(1988). The great drought and
famine of 1888-92 in northeast Africa. In D.H. Johnson & D.M. Anderson (Eds.), The ecology of survival: Case studies from Northeast African history (pp. 47-72). Lester Crook Academic Publishing.
Poku, K. (2002). Small-scale palm oil processing in Africa. Food
and Agriculture Organizations (FAO) of the United Nation.
Raudkivi, A.J. (1979). Hydrology: An introduction to hydrological
processes and modeling. Pergamom.
Sikka, D.R. (1977). Some aspects of the life history, structure and
movement of monsoon depression. PAGEOPH, 115, 1501–1529.
Tarekmerabtene, M.S., & Abdallah, S. (2016). Assessment of
seasonal and annual rainfall trends and variability in Sharjah city, UAE. Advances in Meteorology, 2016, Article 6206238.
Tao, D.Q., Nguyen, V.T.V.,  & Bourque, A. (2002,   June   5-8).  
On selection of probability distributions for representing extreme precipitations in southern Quebec [Paper presentation]. Annual Conference of the Canadian Society for Civil Engineering, Montréal, Québec, Canada.
Thompson, L.M. (1975). Weather variability, climatic change and
grain production. Science, 188 (4188), 535-541.
doi: 10.1126/science.188.4188.535
Thakural, L.N., Kumar, S., Jain, S.K., & Ahmad, T. (2018). The
impact of climate change on rainfall variability: A study in central Himalayas. In V.P. Singh, S. Yadav, & R.N. Yadava (Eds.), Climate Change Impacts (pp. 181–192). Springer.
Udayashankara, T.H., Murthy, B.M.S.,  & Madhukar, M.(2016).
Impact of climate change on rainfall pattern and reservoir level. Journal of Water Resource Engineering and Management, 3(1), 10-14.
Von Braun, J. (1991). A policy agenda for famine prevention in
Africa (Food Policy Statement No. 13). International Food Policy Research Institute.