Rainfall prediction to evaluate the flood risk using remote sensing and geographical information system

Document Type : Original Article


Associate Professor of University of Petrosani, Romania



In this study, the runoff curve number map for Navrud watershed in north of Iran was determined based on the soil hydrological group, land-use and land-cover using remote sensing and geographical information system. For this objective, land-cover and Land-use situation maps were prepared using NDVI index and Landsat satellite data, respectively. Runoff curve number maps were determined using the overlay prepared maps in GIS and SCS table. For evaluating the accuracy of estimated curve numbers, runoff maximum discharge was calculated using HEC-HMS model and compared to the observed values. Furthermore, the climate change trend and probabilistic distribution functions were considered to predict the flood risk. The effects of climate change were defined by atmospheric general circulation models for A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. Error analysis between calculated and observed discharge showed that watershed curve number was determined with acceptable accuracy.